The Pulse on the Economy and Capital Markets: March 2025

The Pulse - March 2025

To Summarize: U.S. markets have taken a hit in March, with stocks and bonds underperforming, while international markets have held up better. Meanwhile, high-yield bond spreads are widening, signaling rising credit risk and caution. Higher-income consumer sentiment is weakening, which is leading to lower discretionary spending. And, trade policy uncertainty hit a 40-year high, leading…

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The Pulse on the Economy and Capital Markets: February 2025

The Pulse, February, 2025

To Summarize: The markets are sending mixed signals as global stocks are outperforming and U.S. small caps struggle. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut expectations are fading as inflation remains persistent. While corporate margins are improving and supporting earnings growth, consumers are becoming more cautious with discretionary spending. We unpack this and more in the…

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The Pulse on the Economy and Capital Markets: January 2025

The Pulse

To Summarize: The markets are off to a strong start in 2025 signaling optimism in the economy. Economic activity picks up as consumer spending and small business confidence continues to rise. Investments in AI are driving growth and reshaping industries. Weakness in China’s economy could increase export competition. We unpack this and more in the…

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The Pulse on the Economy and Capital Markets: December 2024

The Pulse

To Summarize: Stock and bond market performance remains mixed due to uncertainty around expectations of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. Global bond investors are reacting strongly to budgetary concerns. Despite the U.S. economy showing resilience, the persistence of higher-than-expected Supercore inflation keeps the Federal Reserve’s rate policy tighter than desired. We unpack this and…

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The Pulse on the Economy and Capital Markets: November 2024 

The Pulse - November 2024 cover image

To Summarize: The stock and bond markets remain mixed as the Federal Reserve and election dynamics have influenced investor sentiment. Consumers are showing more stability despite stickier inflation. The housing market is feeling the impact of higher mortgage rates. We unpack this and more in the November edition of The Pulse.  In the Markets: Domestic…

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The Pulse on the Economy and Capital Markets: October 2024

The Pulse, October 2024

To Summarize: Stock and bond markets have been mixed as stronger economic growth has slowed expectations for how quickly the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates. Q3 2024 earnings growth is expected to bottom out, but analysts project earnings accelerating to close out the year. Consumers continue to spend and shift to services over goods.…

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The Pulse on the Economy and Capital Markets: September 2024

The Pulse

To Summarize: The markets rose on expectations that the Federal Reserve would be more aggressive in cutting interest rates. Consumer spending trends are split as lower-income groups continue to struggle, while middle- and upper-income groups are still spending, just more cautiously. Economic indicators show mixed signals for the services and manufacturing sectors, and China’s weak…

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The Pulse on the Economy and Capital Markets: August 2024

The Pulse August 2024

To Summarize: In August, we saw significant market volatility leading to sell-offs, followed byrecord-setting rallies. Earnings season presented mixed results with stronger profits anddisappointing revenues. The economy is showing mixed signals as growth continues but at aslower rate. Consumers continue to spend but are delaying big ticket purchases until theFederal Reserve (Fed) lowers interest rates.…

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