Posts Tagged ‘The Pulse’
The Pulse on the Economy and Capital Markets: June 2025
To Summarize: Despite signs of a decelerating economy, the markets are holding up better than expected. However, a slowdown in hiring, flattening earnings expectations, and cautious consumers have even the most seasoned investors struggling to make sense of the mixed signals. Increased AI investment is the surprising upside to this story, with the most profitable…
Read MoreThe Pulse on the Economy and Capital Markets: May 2025
To Summarize: Stock market performance in May has been strong, recouping losses from the April pullback. While inflation is trending lower, it’s not enough to trigger cuts from the Federal Reserve. Consumers continue to spend on essentials and services but are more cautious as sentiments turn financially pessimistic. Small business hiring plans are weakening with…
Read MoreThe Pulse on the Economy and Capital Markets: April 2025
To Summarize: The “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement has pressured U.S. markets while international markets trend higher. Meanwhile, declining valuations and a slight shift down in earnings expectations are driving market performance. The increased average effective tariff rate of 22% and the drop in GDP are fueling recessions concerns around stagflation. The big takeaway – If…
Read MoreThe Pulse on the Economy and Capital Markets: March 2025
To Summarize: U.S. markets have taken a hit in March, with stocks and bonds underperforming, while international markets have held up better. Meanwhile, high-yield bond spreads are widening, signaling rising credit risk and caution. Higher-income consumer sentiment is weakening, which is leading to lower discretionary spending. And, trade policy uncertainty hit a 40-year high, leading…
Read MoreThe Pulse on the Economy and Capital Markets: February 2025
To Summarize: The markets are sending mixed signals as global stocks are outperforming and U.S. small caps struggle. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut expectations are fading as inflation remains persistent. While corporate margins are improving and supporting earnings growth, consumers are becoming more cautious with discretionary spending. We unpack this and more in the…
Read MoreThe Pulse on the Economy and Capital Markets: January 2025
To Summarize: The markets are off to a strong start in 2025 signaling optimism in the economy. Economic activity picks up as consumer spending and small business confidence continues to rise. Investments in AI are driving growth and reshaping industries. Weakness in China’s economy could increase export competition. We unpack this and more in the…
Read MoreThe Pulse on the Economy and Capital Markets: December 2024
To Summarize: Stock and bond market performance remains mixed due to uncertainty around expectations of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. Global bond investors are reacting strongly to budgetary concerns. Despite the U.S. economy showing resilience, the persistence of higher-than-expected Supercore inflation keeps the Federal Reserve’s rate policy tighter than desired. We unpack this and…
Read MoreThe Pulse on the Economy and Capital Markets: November 2024
To Summarize: The stock and bond markets remain mixed as the Federal Reserve and election dynamics have influenced investor sentiment. Consumers are showing more stability despite stickier inflation. The housing market is feeling the impact of higher mortgage rates. We unpack this and more in the November edition of The Pulse. In the Markets: Domestic…
Read MoreThe Pulse on the Economy and Capital Markets: October 2024
To Summarize: Stock and bond markets have been mixed as stronger economic growth has slowed expectations for how quickly the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates. Q3 2024 earnings growth is expected to bottom out, but analysts project earnings accelerating to close out the year. Consumers continue to spend and shift to services over goods.…
Read MoreThe Pulse on the Economy and Capital Markets: September 2024
To Summarize: The markets rose on expectations that the Federal Reserve would be more aggressive in cutting interest rates. Consumer spending trends are split as lower-income groups continue to struggle, while middle- and upper-income groups are still spending, just more cautiously. Economic indicators show mixed signals for the services and manufacturing sectors, and China’s weak…
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